1 · POSITION
You are burning $85K a month against $1.53M in the bank.
$0cash at bank, 31 Aug
$0net monthly burn
Burn is net of $41K monthly revenue. Both figures as you gave them, unadjusted.
2 · RUNWAY
Two hires in March take three months off the runway.
As you are18
With two hires15
At $103K a month from March, the same cash lasts to June next year.
3 · STRESS CASES
If churn doubles as well, the runway halves.
With two hires15
Churn doubles11
Both together7
Churn at 4% cuts revenue faster than cost falls, so burn rises to $139K.
4 · LEVERS
Three levers buy back seven months.
| Lever | Decide by | Months back |
|---|
| Freeze the two hires | Feb | +4 |
| Delay the platform rebuild | Apr | +2 |
| Cut discretionary spend | Any time | +1 |
Pulled together in the worst case, seven months becomes fourteen.
5 · VERDICT
HOLD
The plan works if the hires are conditional on the churn number holding.
WATCHMonthly churn above 3% for two consecutive months.
WATCHCash below $900K before the March hiring decision.
Either signal reopens this plan.